After the blowout win, in the Christian clad plains of Iowa, Mike Huckabee has some solid momentum going into the New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina primaries. However, the "Amen Corner" of the political world, that could slingshot Obama, Huckabee, McCain, into the mainstream, could also be the undoing of any of the candidates campaigns. Where Huckabee and McCain have gained ground over the past month, they are also in dire need of cold hard cash, to continue into the "Super Tuesday, February 5," when the majority of the primaries happen.
However, the Republican Candidates and Primaries are a completely different field, than the Democratic Parties situation. Hillary Clinton and Obama are the only candidates that have a chance of getting the nod to the White House, from Democrats. However, the Republicans have up to five candidates that are in the hunt (theoretically) and the first four primaries could be won by three, or four candidates. The Iowa "Cinderella Story" Primary/Caucus Winner Mike Huckabee, John McCain who was left for dead and penniless four months ago, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and finally Mitt Romney are all still alive and in the preverbal hunt. However, this election is not like other election cycles, psychology, and statistics before them.
Coming out of Iowa, where Huckabee won a resounding victory over Mitt Romney, there is only a five day turn around for a vote in New Hampshire. Where Iowa Christians propelled Huckabee to the thirteen point win in Iowa, a vast different and more independent crowd lurks in New Hampshire where Huckabee will not be a winner, in that states games. However, Huckabee with the momentum, press, and media attention from Iowa will be a factor in taking votes away from other candidates, namely Romney who is faultering (due to over the top negative ads and a perception of flip flops). Where Mitt Romney looked like a clear cut favorite a mere three weeks ago, now McCain has had a big push and is in a (within the room for error) tie with Romney. If Huckabee cuts away just one-fifth of the Romney voters and some independents go with Obama, this would give McCain a victory in New Hampshire and Huckabee a possible second, or third. Which would leave Mitt Romney, who many pundits thought would win Iowa, cruise through New Hampshire, make the turn to Michigan (where he has roots), and making it a two man race against Rudy, with Thompson being the "true conservative third choice." Six weeks, a $10 million in advertising (mostly negative), and a label of being a flip flopper has all but taken Mitt Romney out of the race, unless he can give a blistering performance in this weekends debates. Personally, I don't think that a five day campaign with Joseph Smith, himself, would save Romney at this point.
So, where does that leave the other four candidates? On Saturday, there is a double debate, with the Republicans and Dems. in New Hampshire, and in the Republican Debate the Murdoch/Fox Team whittled the field down to just the "competitive and who could be elected," leaving Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and others out. However, McCain, Thompson, Guiliani, Huckabee, and Romney will be front and center. Look for Romney to go straight at McCain and Huckabee on everything from immigration to foreign policy experience. Thompson and Giuliani have basically put all of their eggs in the overall "Super Tuesday" basket and in Florida. Giuliani, has not put any money, advertising, or time into the first four states, because his "Quasi-Republican" stance on issues will not gain any traction in the first four states. He has set up his shop in Florida, setting his future sights on the rest of the country. Thompson is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, in this whole campaign. His lackluster attitudes on everything is being perceived by the majority of the country,as just plain lackadaisical. Which only retained him a fourth in Iowa, but who knows whether people will view him as someone who is there because he can be, or because he just wants to "give it a shot," like he said on "MSNBC" eight months ago.
There is a very strong shot that Obama could use Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina (where a mostly black constituancy will be a lock) to slingshot his way to the Democratic ticket. Mike Huckabee and his pal Chuck Norris, will not be able to establish this type of steam, because of the landscape. Huckabee, although likable, not into the mainstream Capitol Hill Gang, perceived as a cornerstone of the Evangelical Base, and is a mean base player in his band ('Capitol Offense'), but it would be a miracle to continue thru states like New York, California, and the other "non-fly over states." Plus, he does not have an "Oprah Factor". However, John McCain is up to snuff, where Huckabee lacks. As of right now, the two men (Huckabee and McCain) are not shooting blasts over each others bows and are keeping to their neutral corners, focusing all of their rhetoric toward Romney and Giuliani. If Romney and Thompson are out of the picture after South Carolina, McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy are left for the fight. This leaves a huge hole for Republicans who want a Reaganite, someone who is socially AND fiscally responsible, in the Republican way. However, there is not an actual Reagan figure in the party. Therefore, this is where both Huckabee and McCain come in. Both are low on funds, but where they lack in the funding, they more than make up for it in the like ability department, McCain has experience, and put together they are the perfect candidate.
New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, should eliminate all of the candidates, at least in actual chances to win, but three. Romney will be out in the next 3 weeks, at least in the sense of not having the voting power and situation to make that last push. Thompson has never really made any effort in becoming a President, he will go back to his acting and possibly hocking some verbiage on the college circuit, for his trophy wife's rings, bracelets, and $10,000 a weekend vacations. Guiliani may actually be in the game, but when everything shakes out, there will be a clear and clean cut decision for Republicans: A two time divorcee, pro-abortion, antigun man, with a shaky set of past friends and people in his past (hello, Bernard Kerick, NYC Chief of Police under indictment), or a McCain/Huckabee ticket that the President and Vice President would actually compliment each other, if elected (where Huckabee lacks in Foreign Policy experience, McCain is soaked in it. Where McCain lacks with the "Christian Right," Huckabee is as snug as a bug in a rug with them. [look at the 70% he electorate he got in Iowa]). It is also worth mentioning that McCains health is in decline and he has not been well for a long while, so with Huckabee being in the "second seat", it would not be a bad place to be (not that Mike Huckabee, or anyone should root, for bad health and/or death of anyone).
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